2025 has been a big year for vinyl and physical music formats. This April’s Record Store Day saw the highest level of independent retail sales in three decades.
Labels and retailers like HMV and Rough Trade are also expanding their brick and mortar presence and seeking out partnerships to expand physical sales capacity, demonstrating a resurgence of vinyl and CD interest across age demographics.
In this moment for the industry, physical music and packaging firm Key Production Group has released its predictions for vinyl and physical music in 2026.
Gleaning from initiatives of mainstream artists like Billie Eilish and Coldplay, a shift in sustainable production from trend to standard practice is a likely development.
This has been underway across the industry, with many agencies and labels moving towards the use of materials like BioVinyl and recycled plastic for manufacturing.
Considering almost half of Gen Alpha are CD listeners and many have facility with both CD and record players, Key also predicts an increase in young people moving towards physical formats as they seek out screen-free entertainment.
This also means more opportunities at the merch table for small artists — 75% of fans also report buying physical music specifically to support the artist, with box sets, special editions and multi-formatting all on the rise.
The company’s full predictions, from CEO Karen Emanuel and account manager Julia Völkel, follow:
Packaging will become more innovative
Emanuel: “Over the past year, we’ve seen a wave of bold and creative product designs – not least the Alpha Wolf box set, for which the Key Production team received a joint Grammy nomination. The ‘Boombox Boxset’ comprises multiple formats, including vinyl, CD, cassette, as well as a booklet and NFC tag for extra digital content.
Looking ahead, I expect even more experimentation with textures, effects, and bonus features. Splatter vinyl, for example, was a standout element of the Alpha Wolf set, and it’s a format that has grown significantly in popularity.
Consumer appetite for special editions has never been stronger; our own research revealed that 60% of buyers would purchase more if additional bespoke editions were available, and with this in mind, I expect the market to keep expanding in 2026 as labels respond to this demand.”
Völkel: “It’s clear that younger generations increasingly see vinyl as part of their broader musical experience. What’s striking is how much greater emphasis consumers now place on the visual impact of vinyl. In the 1990s, the sleeve was the main aesthetic feature, but today’s consumers want coloured vinyl, striking artwork and bonus content.
This shift isn’t limited to one particular genre; colour variants and special editions appeal to rock and metal fans as much as enthusiastic pop and hip-hop listeners.
Over the past year, we’ve seen growing demand for formats that combine physical products with digital content. A great example is Ed Sheeran’s exclusive Walmart vinyl, which gave fans access to his secret Instagram account.
The fusion of physical and digital media, including SMART formats, is opening new ways for artists to connect more deeply with their fans – and I believe this trend will only continue to grow in the year ahead.”
Film and game soundtracks will thrive
Emanuel: “In 2024, the vinyl release of Saltburn’s soundtrack entered the UK charts, peaking at Number 2 on the Official Vinyl Albums Chart. That momentum continued this year with the Wicked soundtrack, which set a new record for the biggest first-week vinyl sales of any musical soundtrack in the 21st century. This shows that the appetite for film soundtracks on vinyl remains strong, and I fully expect the trend to continue into 2026.
Beyond film, however, a new and exciting development has been the rise of gaming soundtracks on vinyl. An eight-LP vinyl box set of The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild soundtrack has been released by Nintendo in partnership with Laced Records. This is a major milestone as it’s the first time that a Nintendo game soundtrack has been released on vinyl outside of Japan.
For us at Key Production, this is a particularly exciting area, and I think we’ll see even more growth here in the year ahead.”
Sustainability to become standard practice
Emanuel: In the past few years, we have seen a substantial market opportunity for eco-friendly vinyl records, and it’s been great to see mainstream artists leading on this agenda, with Coldplay re-releasing A Head Full of Dreams on vinyl made from recycled plastic bottles and Billie Eilish pressing Hit Me Hard and Soft on regrind and BioVinyl.
These high-profile examples are helping to push sustainable practices into the spotlight, and we’ve seen this trickle down to consumers, who now expect a level of environmental responsibility in the products they buy. Looking ahead to 2026, I believe sustainable options will shift from being an alternative to becoming the norm.”
Völkel: From a European perspective, this shift is already underway across the supply chain. Agencies, suppliers, manufacturers, and labels are all gradually transitioning towards more environmentally conscious ways of working, and the cumulative effect is that the industry as a whole is becoming more eco-friendly.
In 2026, I expect sustainability will no longer be seen as a niche trend but as a standard expectation across the physical music landscape.”
Smaller artists embrace physical formats
Emanuel: “Over the past year, we’ve seen demand for vinyl continue to rise, but what’s particularly exciting is that the growth isn’t just coming from the biggest names in music. Increasingly, smaller artists are embracing physical formats as a reliable revenue stream. For these acts, vinyl, CDs, and cassettes are no longer niche extras but vital products that fans want to buy.
We’ve also seen merch stands making a real comeback, with artists bundling physical formats alongside T-shirts, posters and collectables. Fans are eager to take something tangible home, and physical formats provide that connection in a way streaming alone can’t.
What stands out is that this isn’t a story of short-lived spikes from international artists – it’s about consistent, steady growth across a wide range of catalogues and artists. That breadth of demand is what makes physical formats so important, especially for emerging acts looking to sustain themselves and build stronger fan relationships.”
Völkel: “At the same time, consumer behaviour has shifted in a way that plays directly into the hands of independent artists. Our research found that 75% of fans buy physical music specifically to support the artist, which opens a huge opportunity for smaller acts, especially in genres like hip-hop, rap, new rock and metal, where superfan culture is thriving.
We’re seeing a rise in bespoke editions, box sets and multi-formatting, and these aren’t limited to global stars. In 2026, I expect physical releases to become an essential part of the strategy for emerging acts who want to build loyal audiences and increase fan engagement.”
Smaller markets will drive vinyl growth
Völkel: “One of the most interesting developments this past year has been the reawakening of smaller European markets through physical formats. Spain, for example, reported a 14.8% year-on-year increase in physical music revenue in the first half of 2025, reaching €17.4 million.
What’s remarkable is that this growth was driven almost entirely by vinyl, which jumped 25.6% to €12 million and now makes up nearly 70% of all physical sales in Spain. Although physical formats still account for just over 10% of Spain’s total music market, the speed of growth highlights how quickly these so-called “overlooked” markets can bounce back.
Similarly, the Italian market grew 10% in 2025, with vinyl sales up by 17% and overall physical music sales increasing by 13% at €33.3m. My prediction is that in 2026, we’ll see similar patterns in other territories where vinyl was once considered absent or in decline, underlining the fact that physical music still has plenty of untapped potential worldwide.”
